Market research with USAspending: who buys and who wins
Practitioner20 min
By the end you can
Size a market from award data.
Find likely incumbents and their contract end dates.
Agencies research the market before they buy. The FAR's market research policy says to conduct market research appropriate to the circumstances 1, and the extent of that research varies with factors such as urgency, estimated dollar value, complexity and past experience 2.
You can run the same research from the seller's side: who buys what you sell, how much, and who wins it today.
The raw material is public. Under the FAR's contract reporting rules, all unclassified Federal award data must be publicly accessible 3.
Check 1
Size the market
Bids2Bank's Where the Money Goes tool reads contract obligations by fiscal year from USAspending, together with who buys and who wins 4. Its amounts are contract obligations, the money committed in each fiscal year, and grants and loans are left out 5.
Worked example. Contractor C sells facilities maintenance under one NAICS code. It filters Where the Money Goes to that code and one department, notes five fiscal years of obligations, and writes down the two sub-agencies that spent the most. Those two buyers become its target list.
Size a market as a range over several fiscal years, never as one year's number. A single large award can make one year look like a trend.
Find who wins, and when their work ends
Who Won Before lists past winners and award amounts 6. For incumbents, Contracts Ending Soon lists contracts ending within a window of 6, 12, 18 or 24 months 7.
Read its figures carefully. The amount shown is money obligated so far, not the contract ceiling 8, and the end date is the current period, which unexercised options can extend 9.
Check 2
When Bids2Bank shows possible incumbents beside a notice, it treats a same-industry, same-buyer contract that ends soon as a lead on who holds this work today, not proof 10.