Contracting officers judge prices partly against the past. One price analysis technique is comparison of the proposed prices to historical prices paid, whether by the Government or other than the Government, for the same or similar items 1. And normally, adequate price competition establishes a fair and reasonable price 2.
How much price weighs depends on the solicitation, which must say at a minimum whether the non-price factors combined are significantly more important than, approximately equal to, or significantly less important than cost or price 3.
Bound the range
Price Check shades the middle half of comparable awards, from the 25th to the 75th percentile 4. Its amounts are obligated to date, with unexercised options left out, so long contracts can look smaller than their ceiling 5. Its annual run-rate uses only completed awards 6, and awards under $10,000 are left out 7.
Worked example. Price Check returns 40 comparable awards for Contractor D's service. The middle half runs from $1.1 million to $2.4 million in total, and completed awards ran at about $500,000 a year. Contractor D's own costed estimate is $560,000 a year, inside the range. Had it come in at $900,000, D would look for a scope difference before touching price.
Price Check says it plainly: this is a benchmark, not the government's estimate, and your price should come from your own costs 8.
What public data cannot tell you
Bids2Bank's award history notes that USAspending has no NSN, no part number and no quantity 9, so it leaves each award's unit price empty and marks it not calculable 10.
Comparisons need adjusting too. The FAR's historical-price technique calls for adjusting the prior price for materially differing terms and conditions, quantities and market and economic factors 11.
Two lawful sources give real prices. In a negotiated (FAR Part 15) competition, the contracting officer shall provide written notification to each offeror whose proposal was in the competitive range but was not selected for award 12, and the notice includes the items, quantities, and any stated unit prices of each award 13. If the number of items or other factors makes listing unit prices impracticable at that time, only the total contract price need be furnished in the notice 14. A debriefing includes the overall evaluated cost or price (including unit prices) and technical rating, if applicable, of the successful offeror and the debriefed offeror 15.
One source is off limits: the procurement integrity rules bar anyone, other than as provided by law, from knowingly obtaining contractor bid or proposal information or source selection information before award 16.
Indented paragraphs are invented worked examples. Tool links open Bids2Bank and need a free account.